Reserve Bank of India Meetings Calendar for 2015

Reserve Bank of India Meetings Calendar for 2015
Date	Day	Time	Event	Actual	Previous
28th January 2015	Wednesday	11:00 A.M	RBI Interest Rate Decision	8%	8%
1st April 2015	Wednesday	12:00 P.M	RBI Interest Rate Decision
3rd June 2015	Wednesday	12:00 P.M	RBI Interest Rate Decision
5th August 2015	Wednesday	12:00 P.M	RBI Interest Rate Decision
30th September 2015	Wednesday	12:00 P.M	RBI Interest Rate Decision
Source:
In India, interest rate decisions are taken by the Reserve Bank of India's Central Board of Directors.
The official interest rate is the benchmark repurchase rate.

Bank of England (BoE) Meetings Calendar for 2015

News Release - Monetary Policy Committee dates for 2015 Bank of England (BoE) has a meeting once every month.
​2015 January – July 1
Month	MPC	Minutes	Inflation Report
	Announcement​	Publication	Publication​
​January 2015	​Thursday 8	​Wednesday 21	​
​February 2015	​Thursday 5	​Wednesday 18	​Wednesday 11
​March 2015	​Thursday 5	​Wednesday 18	​
​April 2015	​Thursday 9	​Wednesday 22	​
​May 2015**	​Monday 11	​Wednesday 20	​Wednesday 13
​June 2015	​Thursday 4	​Wednesday 17	​
​July 2015	​Thursday 9	​Wednesday 22	​
2015 August – December 1
​Month	MPC Announcement, Minutes
	and Inflation Report2​
​August 2015*	​Thursday 6
​September 2015	​Thursday 10
​October 2015	​Thursday 8
​November 2015*	​Thursday 5
​December 2015	​Thursday 10
1 These dates are provisional and subject to change.
2 As described in the Bank’s report Accountability and Transparency at the Bank of England,
from August 2015 the MPC will typically meet on the Wednesday immediately prior to the
decision and the preceding Monday and Thursday.   These arrangements will also be used in
June and July 2015 to test new processes.  Prior to that the MPC meeting will take place on the
morning of the day of announcement and the preceding afternoon.
*Months in which an Inflation Report will be published alongside the Announcement and
Minutes
**Because the scheduled date for the May 2015 general election falls on a day when the MPC
meeting would usually take place, the meeting will be deferred by 24 hours to Thursday
afternoon and Friday morning. The decision would be announced at 12 noon on the Monday
after the election, as previously published.
Source Bank of England Website.

FED Bank Meetings Calendar for 2015

FED Meetings Calendar for 2015

The FED has 8 meetings every year and its important to follow them for rate cut decisions, market operations and other such information relevant for your trading.

FOMC = Federal Open Market Committee. Meets once in approximately 45 days.
                It is the policy making body for the Federal Bank of  United States.
                Current Chairperson is Janet Yellen. She succeeded Ben Bernanke.

2015 FOMC Meetings
1	January	27-28th
2	March	17-18th
3	April	28-29th
4	June	16-17th
5	July	28-29th
6	September	16-17th
7	October	27-28th
8	December	15-16th

Meeting's of March/June/September/December are associated with a Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference by the Chair.

ECB Calendar for Governing Council Meetings in 2015

ECB Calendar for Governing Council Meetings in 2015

ECB publishes new calendar for Governing Council Meetings with six week interval for monetary policy meetings. The Governing Council decided this from month of July 2014 that meetings dedicated to monetary policy will be held every six weeks instead of once in a month, starting in January 2015.

S.no	Meeting dates	Comments
	Wednesday, 7 January 2015	Non-monetary policy meeting
1	Thursday, 22 January 2015	Monetary policy meeting  followed by press conference
	Wednesday, 4 February 2015	Non-monetary policy meeting
	Wednesday, 18 February 2015	Non-monetary policy meeting
2	Thursday, 5 March 2015	Monetary policy meeting  followed by press conference   (Cyprus)
	Wednesday, 18 March 2015	Non-monetary policy meeting
	Wednesday, 1 April 2015	Non-monetary policy meeting
3	Wednesday, 15 April 2015	Monetary policy meeting  followed by press conference
	Wednesday, 6 May 2015	Non-monetary policy meeting
	Wednesday, 20 May 2015	Non-monetary policy meeting
4	Wednesday, 3 June 2015	Monetary policy meeting  followed by press conference
	Wednesday, 17 June 2015	Non-monetary policy meeting
	Wednesday, 1 July 2015	Non-monetary policy meeting
5	Thursday, 16 July 2015	Monetary policy meeting  followed by press conference
	Wednesday, 5 August 2015	Non-monetary policy meeting
6	Thursday, 3 September 2015	Monetary policy meeting  followed by press conference
	Wednesday, 16 September 2015	Non-monetary policy meeting
	Wednesday, 7 October 2015	Non-monetary policy meeting
7	Thursday, 22 October 2015	Monetary policy meeting  followed by press conference   (Malta)
	Wednesday, 4 November 2015	Non-monetary policy meeting
	Wednesday, 18 November 2015	Non-monetary policy meeting
8	Thursday, 3 December 2015	Monetary policy meeting  followed by press conference
	Wednesday, 16 December 2015	Non-monetary policy meeting

USD/INR Analysis

USD/INR

Below is my analysis for USD/INR. The likely reason for weakening of Rupee could be

1. Tensions with our neighbors or some natural disaster.
2. Cutting of Interest Rates.
3. Spiraling Budget Deficit.
4. International conditions may change conditions at home.

Wave Analysis.

Retracement Levels.

NIFTY - SENSEX

NIFTY - SENSEX

Bad news is good news for the markets. That seems to be the correlation globally and in India. Internationally Mr. Ben Bernanke is supposed to step down end of Jan as chairman of the FED and Ms. Janet Yellen is to take over as the Chairwoman of the FED. She is in favour of continuing low interest rates and the bond purchase program, which currently is at 85B per month. In other words she plans to continue quantitative easing. Moreover in the US the debt limit ceiling is coming on the 7th of FEB which should normally make the markets nervous. However we can see the reverse happening. The DJIA is at an all time high.

We see similar things happening at home. An interest rate hike is inversely related to the stock market. As rates go up stock markets come down and vice-versa. However our new governor Mr. Raghuram Rajan has raised rates twice since taking office in September this year and is expected to raise it once again in the December meeting, the markets have reacted positively to this and the Sensex as well as Nifty rose. Currently the Nifty has corrected but I will expect it to go to 6800 before elections. Likewise the SENSEX can also be expected to go to 23K. So we see that bad news is good news at home also. Generally speaking markets correct before elections or remain subdued, however our markets are bullish. Most likely the correct would come after elections.

Technically also one cant see any signs of reversal in the market at this point. The worrying factor remains that not all the sectors are reacting positively. One can trade but be careful and keep a stoploss to exit quickly. With more and more money moving into stock markets over the years, markets have become volatile. They go up quickly and come down quickly as well. Swings are huge. For times to come that is how markets will behave.

 

Gold

Yesterday in the Times of India of 10th November 2013, I was reading an article by Mr. Gurcharan Das on Gold. He pointed out many factors taken by RBI (Reserve bank of India) because of which gold prices got a bit deflated and he expects gold prices to come down in the future.

In my Analysis the exact reverse is likely to happen. Despite the surprise Interest rate cut by the ECB gold held on above 1300 USD. It was only on Friday with some good numbers of Non Farm Payrolls coming from the US that Gold actually went down. I do not expect gold to go lower than 1261 this month and then to slightly recover to around 1300 levels by month end. Next month gold might try the low once again, the reason being that in January Mr. Bernanke is to leave office and in all likelihood Ms. Janet Yellen is to become the new FED Chairperson.  So, though gold usually is bullish in December and January it is likely to get bullish only in January end or beginning of February 2014. I expect gold to close around 1350 by the year end and see every dip as a buying opportunity.

Moreover with Money printing continuing gold and silver will benefit as currencies globally lose value. As far as the Non Farm Payroll numbers are concerned they are usually good during this time of the year due to approaching Christmas and new year holidays. Moreover the number is a surprise because the numbers have gone up even though there was  a US shutdown which is likely to happen again on Feb 7^th the next date for the debt limit to end.