Saturday, 22 August 2015

Trading Performance of MoneyBoy


Below link takes you to the trading account of MoneyBoy. Provides all positions for viewing including history of account.

Trading Performance of MoneyBoy

Friday, 21 August 2015

Thursday, 13 August 2015

USD/INR - August 2015 - Trade opportunity unfolding

USD/INR has continued to weaken as indicated by my earlier analysis, however i did not foresee the devaluation of the YUAN coming. Though 2.8% devaluation of the yuan is not much but the fact remains that another 2% or so could be cut by the Chinese Central Bank. So a strengthening Dollar, RBI cutting Interest Rates and now a devaluing yuan (Which is a major trading partner with most Asian Economies including India (China is India's largest trading partner and USA is number 2 since 2013) has all set into motion a rupee that is weakening. I however expect this to be the last leg of weakening for the rupee as also strengthening for the Dollar. The only change i would not like to make is that though earlier i did not expect INR to cross the previous high, with the yuan factor now in play i would be open to the Rupee briefly flirting with INR 70 before strengthening.

FED will start to hike rates from Sept or possibly from the next meeting after September this year in October. This will result in weakening of the Dollar as against usual wisdom that an increase in interest rates makes the currency stronger. This will also result in strengthening of the INR. There are of course other factors that will make the rupee stronger as already discussed in my earlier articles.

Below once again is the Chart I had put up earlier to see the INR right on track.

My target for USD/INR over the long term (end of 2016) will be the 50% retracement level for USD/INR which is approximately Rs. 53 to the US Dollar.