My expectations on USDCHF

DJIA - Monthly Chart

WTI Crude - Possible wave count

GBPUSD-Buy Signal

EURUSD-Analysis

SNB (Swiss National Bank) Pegging-Unpegging

The SNB decided to peg the CHF to the Euro at a rate of 1.2000 on 9th August 2011.
3 years later it decided to un-peg the EURCHF rate of 1.2000 on 15th Jan 2015.

The strange thing is that just on 14th Mr. Thomas Jordan the Governor of the SNB said that they would continue the peg. In 24 hours however his opinion changed and the peg was done away with.

Impact of SNB action

·         Tourism industry gets affected as CHF becomes very strong and hence makes everything in Switzerland more expensive.

·         Swiss Export Industry hit badly.

·         Many brokerage houses suffered huge losses, like Alpari UK, Excel Brokers Newzealand and also FXCM suffered huge losses.

·         Many brokerage houses stopped trading the Franc due to excessive volatility.

·         The Swiss benchmark Stock Index fell 10%.

Thomas Jordan’s argument:

"The euro has depreciated considerably against the US dollar and this, in turn, has caused the Swiss franc to weaken against the U.S. dollar. In these circumstances, the SNB concluded that enforcing and maintaining the minimum exchange rate for the Swiss franc against the euro is no longer justified," the statement said.

"While the Swiss franc is still high, the overvaluation has decreased as a whole since the introduction of the minimum exchange rate."

The central bank also cut its main interest rate to -0.75 percent—a move further into negative territory.

"The SNB is lowering interest rates significantly to ensure that the discontinuation of the minimum exchange rate does not lead to an inappropriate tightening of monetary conditions," it added.

________________________________________________________________________________

It was becoming increasingly difficult for the SNB to defend the rate and in addition the SNB felt that the ECB was going to launch a bond buying program which would put further pressure on the SNB and make it impossible for it to defend the rate. 

I expect EURCHF and USDCHF to hit its lows once again sometimes in the next 2 to 4 months. After that i expect it to reverse to more comfortable levels. 

The charts below make it more clear what happened that day:

WTI Crude Oil - US dollar Index

WTI Crude & USDX

Crude has been a topic of discussion for some time with many countries particularly Oil producing ones feeling the pain of the low price. If Crude stays at around 40 levels till the end of the year or more, it could result in serious trouble for Russia, Iran, and a few others. Most analysis has been with reference to Saudi wanting to take on Russia in the Oil Market and Iran which wants to be the regional power in the Middle East which is not to the liking of the Saudis.

The problem with Crude staying at low prices upsets the budget of most oil producing countries which need crude to be at around 80 plus USD to be able to balance their budgets. Current prices would make huge holes in their budget leaving them with big deficits.

I feel Saudi and US are being unfairly targeted because markets drive prices. Since 2008 Crude has made an attempt to move back to 120 plus USD region but failed. At some point profit taking was likely to happen.

Saudis would not like to keep the prices at these or lower levels for long, so is the case also with the US. US is comfortable for the next few months due to storing oil and gas, but US itself needs oil prices to be above 50 USD to support its Shale gas and oil Industry which eventually will get effected if prices stay at these prices.

There is also another line of thought which believes the Saudis are squeezing out competition including the US Shale Oil and Gas companies.

Whatever the case, the current situation is most serious because if crude stays at these prices till around the end of the year, we could have unwinding of positions on other markets. Oil Producing countries would have to unwind positions in Real Estate and Stocks to meet their spending's. This could lead the stock markets to crash globally.

Have attached Charts of USDX (US Dollar Index and Crude). Maybe we are near the bottom. USDX is in overbought territory as can be seen from the RSI. If the price of 92 in US Dollar Index holds we can see some correction in crude possibly to above 52.

Technical Analysis - Level Baby

WTI Crude Chart 4H

WTI Crude Chart

WTI Crude Analysis - Weekly Chart

I will also upload the Monthly chart later during the day. For now the whole world is focused on crude prices and how crude would impact oil producing countries. Even Saudi Arabia needs a price of 86 USD approximately to be able to meet its budget requirements failing which they have to find ways to meet budget deficits. Russia gets 45% of its GDP from Crude and in the case of Nigeria its as high as 70%.

To that extent if crude continues to stay at current levels till around June when the next OPEC meeting will take place, it could be bad for stock markets as unwinding of long positions could take place for a quick correction in the stock markets around May-June this year. 

Reserve Bank of India Meetings Calendar for 2015

Reserve Bank of India Meetings Calendar for 2015
Date	Day	Time	Event	Actual	Previous
28th January 2015	Wednesday	11:00 A.M	RBI Interest Rate Decision	8%	8%
1st April 2015	Wednesday	12:00 P.M	RBI Interest Rate Decision
3rd June 2015	Wednesday	12:00 P.M	RBI Interest Rate Decision
5th August 2015	Wednesday	12:00 P.M	RBI Interest Rate Decision
30th September 2015	Wednesday	12:00 P.M	RBI Interest Rate Decision
Source:
In India, interest rate decisions are taken by the Reserve Bank of India's Central Board of Directors.
The official interest rate is the benchmark repurchase rate.

Bank of England (BoE) Meetings Calendar for 2015

News Release - Monetary Policy Committee dates for 2015 Bank of England (BoE) has a meeting once every month.
​2015 January – July 1
Month	MPC	Minutes	Inflation Report
	Announcement​	Publication	Publication​
​January 2015	​Thursday 8	​Wednesday 21	​
​February 2015	​Thursday 5	​Wednesday 18	​Wednesday 11
​March 2015	​Thursday 5	​Wednesday 18	​
​April 2015	​Thursday 9	​Wednesday 22	​
​May 2015**	​Monday 11	​Wednesday 20	​Wednesday 13
​June 2015	​Thursday 4	​Wednesday 17	​
​July 2015	​Thursday 9	​Wednesday 22	​
2015 August – December 1
​Month	MPC Announcement, Minutes
	and Inflation Report2​
​August 2015*	​Thursday 6
​September 2015	​Thursday 10
​October 2015	​Thursday 8
​November 2015*	​Thursday 5
​December 2015	​Thursday 10
1 These dates are provisional and subject to change.
2 As described in the Bank’s report Accountability and Transparency at the Bank of England,
from August 2015 the MPC will typically meet on the Wednesday immediately prior to the
decision and the preceding Monday and Thursday.   These arrangements will also be used in
June and July 2015 to test new processes.  Prior to that the MPC meeting will take place on the
morning of the day of announcement and the preceding afternoon.
*Months in which an Inflation Report will be published alongside the Announcement and
Minutes
**Because the scheduled date for the May 2015 general election falls on a day when the MPC
meeting would usually take place, the meeting will be deferred by 24 hours to Thursday
afternoon and Friday morning. The decision would be announced at 12 noon on the Monday
after the election, as previously published.
Source Bank of England Website.

FED Bank Meetings Calendar for 2015

FED Meetings Calendar for 2015

The FED has 8 meetings every year and its important to follow them for rate cut decisions, market operations and other such information relevant for your trading.

FOMC = Federal Open Market Committee. Meets once in approximately 45 days.
                It is the policy making body for the Federal Bank of  United States.
                Current Chairperson is Janet Yellen. She succeeded Ben Bernanke.

2015 FOMC Meetings
1	January	27-28th
2	March	17-18th
3	April	28-29th
4	June	16-17th
5	July	28-29th
6	September	16-17th
7	October	27-28th
8	December	15-16th

Meeting's of March/June/September/December are associated with a Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference by the Chair.

ECB Calendar for Governing Council Meetings in 2015

ECB Calendar for Governing Council Meetings in 2015

ECB publishes new calendar for Governing Council Meetings with six week interval for monetary policy meetings. The Governing Council decided this from month of July 2014 that meetings dedicated to monetary policy will be held every six weeks instead of once in a month, starting in January 2015.

S.no	Meeting dates	Comments
	Wednesday, 7 January 2015	Non-monetary policy meeting
1	Thursday, 22 January 2015	Monetary policy meeting  followed by press conference
	Wednesday, 4 February 2015	Non-monetary policy meeting
	Wednesday, 18 February 2015	Non-monetary policy meeting
2	Thursday, 5 March 2015	Monetary policy meeting  followed by press conference   (Cyprus)
	Wednesday, 18 March 2015	Non-monetary policy meeting
	Wednesday, 1 April 2015	Non-monetary policy meeting
3	Wednesday, 15 April 2015	Monetary policy meeting  followed by press conference
	Wednesday, 6 May 2015	Non-monetary policy meeting
	Wednesday, 20 May 2015	Non-monetary policy meeting
4	Wednesday, 3 June 2015	Monetary policy meeting  followed by press conference
	Wednesday, 17 June 2015	Non-monetary policy meeting
	Wednesday, 1 July 2015	Non-monetary policy meeting
5	Thursday, 16 July 2015	Monetary policy meeting  followed by press conference
	Wednesday, 5 August 2015	Non-monetary policy meeting
6	Thursday, 3 September 2015	Monetary policy meeting  followed by press conference
	Wednesday, 16 September 2015	Non-monetary policy meeting
	Wednesday, 7 October 2015	Non-monetary policy meeting
7	Thursday, 22 October 2015	Monetary policy meeting  followed by press conference   (Malta)
	Wednesday, 4 November 2015	Non-monetary policy meeting
	Wednesday, 18 November 2015	Non-monetary policy meeting
8	Thursday, 3 December 2015	Monetary policy meeting  followed by press conference
	Wednesday, 16 December 2015	Non-monetary policy meeting

USD/INR Analysis

USD/INR

Below is my analysis for USD/INR. The likely reason for weakening of Rupee could be

1. Tensions with our neighbors or some natural disaster.
2. Cutting of Interest Rates.
3. Spiraling Budget Deficit.
4. International conditions may change conditions at home.

Wave Analysis.

Retracement Levels.